The big winners and losers in the 2022 Election can be seen in our online interactive ADS 2022 Election Map.
The five big players in 2022 were the traditional majors: the ALP and the Coalition, but also the minor parties, like the Greens, the Teals and the Others (including One Nation and the UAP).
The influence of the minor parties in 2022 was wielded not so much through their preferences, but through the sheer size of their primary votes, as the support base for the major parties shrunk, with the ALP going backwards in some of its once-safest seats in Victoria to One Nation, the UAP and the Teals and the Liberal Party copping an absolute hiding in its wealthiest seats to Independents and in its former stronghold of Western Australia.
Teal campaigns run by the Climate 200 group wiped out the Green primary vote when they both ran in safe Liberal like Kooyong, but where there was no Teal candidate, as we saw in three Brisbane River seats won by the Greens, the Liberal primary vote losses switched directly to the Greens.
The primary vote for the Others group exceeded 20 percent after ten percent plus swings to the minor parties in normally-solid Labor seats across Victoria, NSW and Tasmania.
While the Liberal Party has a problem in its safest seats with the higher-income Teals, the ALP has a problem in its safest, lower-income seats, with right wing minor parties.
The interactive Esri map also shows an innovative cube layer for two of the key demographic drivers for the Teal vote: Female Professionals and Top Quartile income earners, so you can see how these two variables interact.
If you want to know which federal seats are most likely to swing strongly to the Teal candidates at the Federal election on May 21, check out the 🔗Map below.
The map shows the percentage of top income quartile persons in 2022 Federal seats in darker shades of teal and is modelled by ADS from the latest available Australian Tax Office data.
Demographic break downs of national Newspoll summaries published in The Australian between early 2020 and the start of the 2022 election campaign, indicate that about one in eight voters in this top income quartile had swung their previously strong support in primary vote terms from the Coalition, directly across to Voices or “Teal” candidates, where a Teal candidate was available.
To put this in perspective, in early 2020, nearly half of all voters in this income group cast their vote for Coalition candidates and in the first quarter of 2022, this figure was down to one in three.
While this may well be the national sentiment among top income earners, where no Teal candidate is available at this election, there is still likely to be a smaller Two Party Preferred swing from the Coalition to Labor from about one in 12 voters among this group. This disaffection from top income workers represents serious hurt for Liberal MPs in what have been their traditional strongholds.
We’ve been looking at the demographic breakdowns by income in individual seat polls and nothing we’ve seen so far contradicts the above trend up to the second week of the campaign.
Nonetheless, we will be watching future Newspoll summaries, presuming another one is available before the election.
The big winners and losers in the 2022 Election can be seen in our online interactive ADS 2022 Election Map.
The five big players in 2022 were the traditional majors: the ALP and the Coalition, but also the minor parties, like the Greens, the Teals and the Others (including One Nation and the UAP).
The influence of the minor parties in 2022 was wielded not so much through their preferences, but through the sheer size of their primary votes, as the support base for the major parties shrunk, with the ALP going backwards in some of its once-safest seats in Victoria to One Nation, the UAP and the Teals and the Liberal Party copping an absolute hiding in its wealthiest seats to Independents and in its former stronghold of Western Australia.
Teal campaigns run by the Climate 200 group wiped out the Green primary vote when they both ran in safe Liberal like Kooyong, but where there was no Teal candidate, as we saw in three Brisbane River seats won by the Greens, the Liberal primary vote losses switched directly to the Greens.
The primary vote for the Others group exceeded 20 percent after ten percent plus swings to the minor parties in normally-solid Labor seats across Victoria, NSW and Tasmania.
While the Liberal Party has a problem in its safest seats with the higher-income Teals, the ALP has a problem in its safest, lower-income seats, with right wing minor parties.
The interactive Esri map also shows an innovative cube layer for two of the key demographic drivers for the Teal vote: Female Professionals and Top Quartile income earners, so you can see how these two variables interact.
2022 Election Results – Summary for EGS Clients
Friday 27th May, 2022 by EGS Founder John Black
Did a short presentation with Saul Eslake today on the 2022 election results and the implications for Education Geographics Client Schools, with particular relevance to the election of new Teal MPs. It makes interesting reading.
Due to popular demand (my wife Jeanine thought it was a good idea), I’m re-posting the PDF I prepared a few months ago for my Australian Financial Review article of February 15 on the rise of the Teal vote and the associated decline of the primary vote for the major parties. It may help you on election night to understand why the major party primary votes have fallen, and also to follow the larger swings to Labor in seats where popular Coalition members have retired, such as Bennelong or Casey.
Monday14th February, 2022 Political Voices: Past, Present & Future
If you want to know which federal seats were more likely to show swings to the Opposition at the start of this election campaign, then the Esri map in this link isn’t a bad place to start.
The online Esri map uses the latest Australian Electoral Commission data on age groups for men and women by current federal seats and draws on 50 years of election profiling of Federal and State elections.
When you open the Esri map, click on the three dots at top right to see the legend and then on the bookmark icon to zip between capital cities and territories. The map works on mobile phones and PCs.
The dark maroon electorates are those containing a mix of age groups covering maturing traditional swinging voters and aspirational voters in the ages at which they traditionally begin to move their vote from Labor to the Coalition.
We see strong clusters of these seats containing high proportions of persons aged 35 to 49 years in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth. They cover a range of political allegiances, from traditionally safe Liberal to strong Labor.
With 2PP swings to the ALP of about five percent in the first week of the campaign, we would expect to see a range of swings of up to 25 percent, with plus five percent for Labor being the mid-point.
Of course, the figures will change during the campaign and other demographic indicators will emerge to pull some seats to swing to the Coalition. We will map these during the coming weeks.
This election I’m writing some research articles for the Australian Financial Review and doing Monday morning interviews with Radio National on election modelling for the May 21, 2022 election.
Profiling of the Voices 2019 demographics by Australian Development Strategies shows that grassroots campaigns by Voices candidates against Liberals in 2022 – led by professional women – could be even more devastating for Labor MPs if turned against them in 2025.
This means that the Federal election of 2022 is not so much a contest between the Liberal Party and the Labor Party, but more a contest about what future Labor and Liberal Governments will look like.
In the mid-1980’s, male Tradespersons was the biggest single male or female occupation group in Australia and Tradies dominated the ALP voting profile, and Female Professionals played an equally important role for the Liberal voting profile.
But both major parties have been challenged in 2022 by the loss of their historical bases of primary vote support during the past 40 years, among Tradies and Miners for Labor, and among Professionals for the Liberals.
The problem for both major parties is that, by November 2021, Female Professionals was the biggest single male or female occupation group in Australia and there were twice as many Professional Persons as Tradespersons, Clerks or Service Workers. And their vote is up for grabs.
Coalition candidates in 2022 are vulnerable to well-funded and more professionally-managed “Voices” campaigns run by local activists, particularly when factionalised party machines select a favourite candidate with a negative personal vote, as this gives a leg-up to a Voices campaign.
Australian Development Strategies Modelling of booth-level profiles in a selection of Urban and Rural 2019 seats won or strongly contested by Independent or Green candidates, shows Voices candidates attracted support from some fast-growing demographics, including Agnostics and better-educated, professional women.
Economic trends infer the current demographic base of Voices candidates is likely to grow over time and, with a Labor win likely in 2022, this base could prove a bigger threat to Labor in 2025 than it is to the Liberals in 2022
Our ADS Senior Mapper Dr Jeanine McMullan has a 🔗Mapshowing the potential impact of Voices candidates in 2022.
The computed predicted Voices 2CP votes for Sydney (left) and Melbourne (right
Our EGS Spatial Analyst and Senior Mapper Dr Jeanine McMullan has just recorded a new video.
In the video, headed The Power of the Esri Map Module, Jeanine conveys her sense of excitement at being able to explore innovative new map layers of small-scale data which she can superimpose on EGS catchment maps, so schools can improve how they spatially manage their school to the benefit of their students and their families.
On a practical level, Jeanine and I explain how the layers on an EGS school map can be used to design the most cost-effective school bus routes and stops, based on ease of access from existing students and also from potential additional students, whose families match your school profile.
This means your wrapped school bus can serve as a mobile marketing platform in the most prospective streets in your catchment, as it takes your current students to and from school.
The route design can be adapted annually to changing marketing and logistics strategies, with the new layout downloaded and sent to school drivers or bus companies, and posted on school websites.
Jeanine then shows her genuine enthusiasm for new advanced features in map design which, for example, can help a school begin to estimate the environmental cost in terms of carbon credits of various transport strategies, how to make of use of emergency map layers, showing, for example, flooding risks and fire updates, as well as longer term development plans from your local authorities.
Using available data from late 2021, the Education Geographics team calculated post-Covid spatial estimates from 2020 to 2031 on total population, pre-schoolers and school-aged children.
Our preliminary EGS population modelling indicates that the big winners from Covid impacts on total Australian population growth have been the four SA4 ABS statistical regions making up the state of Tasmania, along with four regions within a two-hour commute of the Melbourne CBD: Ballarat, Bendigo, Geelong and La Trobe-Gippsland. (See the purple SA4 regions in our attached map).
Click Map to Zoom
It seems that the big Covid lockdown of Tasmania worked a treat to boost Tasmania’s modest but stable, pre-Covid state annual growth rate, from about 0.5 percent up to 0.7 percent between 2020 and 2031, with most of the gains coming in Hobart.
And it seemed that some Melbourne residents wanting a relatively safe work-from-home retreat still wanted the option of a convenient weekly commute to meetings in the CBD. If this wasn’t needed, well, they just moved to South East Queensland.
And the big losers? Take your pick of pretty much any capital city CBD across the nation, with greater Sydney a very sad sea of red on our attached map of Covid population impacts. No wonder the NSW Government are lobbying to crank up migration numbers.
As far as the other capitals went, those most adversely impacted after Sydney were, In diminishing order, the ABS regions of Brisbane, Melbourne, Perth and then Adelaide.
By way of benchmarks, we anticipate that the annual pre-Covid national growth rate of 1.6 percent will drop to an annual average of about 1.0 percent out to 2031.
In terms of total Australian population, this translates to a predicted post-Covid figure of 28.5 million, compared to a pre-Covid figure of 30.3 million, a drop of 1.8 million persons, due to Covid impacts.
When it comes to pre-schoolers aged 0-4 years, the national predicted pre-Covid figure of 1.9 million could drop by 340,000 to 1.56 million, with the biggest losses experienced in the suburbs of Melbourne and Sydney
For school children aged 5 to 17 years, the expected national pre-Covid population could drop by more than half a million students, from 4.8 million to 4.3 million. At 25 kids per class, that’s enough kids to fill more than 20,000 classrooms that we’d expected to see by 2031, but now we don’t.
Where these gaps in previous forecasts are likely to be concentrated is fundamental to planning decisions over the next decade.
All EGS client schools will have this pre-Covid and post-Covid information for total population, pre-schoolers and school children projected as a summary onto their major catchments.
In addition, on request, EGS qualified professionals will be able to access EGS fine-grained data for school planning projects, such as a new campus, or for commercial expansion plans for a pre-Covid growth area.
Planning before Covid
Before Covid hit our shores in late 2019, population forecasts for urban planners were pretty straightforward.
After the detailed data had been published from the 2016 Census, projections were prepared for the Australian Government Department of Health by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. These projections reflected assumptions made about future fertility, mortality and migration trends.
It was all very official and credible and was produced down to relatively fine grained SA2 levels of about 10,000 persons and extensively used by schools, developers, big business and urban planners at all levels of Government and across the private sector.
The Health Department data was considered so reliable, you could take it to the bank and many investors did just that.
And then along came Covid in late 2019 and made all prior population forecasts redundant.
National borders were closed, many foreign students already here departed our shores, potential students and skilled workers were locked out, businesses were shut down for months at a time, working from home became the norm, CBDs were deserted and families began to drift outwards from Melbourne and Sydney into the regions and then interstate.
Queensland was the biggest winner in terms of gaining these interstate migrants from both New South Wales and Victoria, with anecdotal evidence inferring most gains were in the outlying coastal regions of South East Queensland and possibly northern NSW.
In early January 2022, we were in fact about to fine tune our forecasts to take these latest ABS figures into account, but ballooning omicron numbers by then had pretty much spoiled that sense of post-vaccination optimism.
We will monitor developments over the next months for the expected peak and fade of omicron and the possible arrival of new Covid variants. When we have more substantial evidence of sustainable trends, we will re-visit our forecasts.
We have a way to go yet with this virus, unfortunately, and with the evolving impact it is having on our total population numbers and spatial growth patterns across the nation.
In late 2021, Australia appears headed for a strong economic recovery, but underlying structural problems mean this is no time for complacency among school leaders about future demand for Non-Government school places in 2022 and beyond.
As outlined in the Australian Financial Review today (December 2, 2021) Economics Editor John Kehoe warns the current publicly-funded economic boom is putting way too many layers of magenta-coloured lipstick on an economy hamstrung by an archaic tax system, mounting pressures on welfare and defence spending and a fossil fuel exporting economy in a world edging ever closer to a renewable-dependent energy mix.
At Education Geographics, we’ve been lucky to secure the mentorship of distinguished Australian Economist Saul Eslake during 2021, to present monthly webinars to our EGS school leaders on the impact of Covid on the repeated Covid cycles of lockdown, economic downturn and subsequent recovery.
We’ve also taken advantage of the outstanding job done by our Australian Bureau of Statistics on mass payroll data from taxpayers and our own team of statistical modelers, to inform EGS schools on how Covid has directly impacted jobs in their school catchments and show EGS school leaders which industry groups of parents have been impacted and how many of them enrol their children across their school’s top enrolment streets.
This short video with the EGS leadership team and Broadcaster Steve Austin explains some of the background issues for schools and illustrates how EGS has provided data on Covid impacts on jobs in their local suburbs.
John Black – Founder & Executive Chairman – Education Geographics
On October 27, 2020, the Australian Government announced fully-vaccinated Australians could travel overseas without first having to seek permission from the Department of Home Affairs. The next practical hurdle for overseas travel will be reciprocal quarantine-free arrivals in other countries, via vaccinated-only travel lanes, with Singapore apparently now head of the queue for Australians.
Hopefully, the same quarantine-free travel will apply mid-way through next year for Australians heading to British Columbia, where our family Flyfishing and adventure holiday has been booked – and deferred – for each of the past two years.
As I type, my beloved is in her nearby home office now, filling out the passport renewal forms for our kids by hand, after the Australian Governments’ automated passport renewal form decided (part-way between the first and second child’s form) that it no longer recognised our address, where I’ve lived for 40 years. We just hope the Commonwealth Government does better with the software needed for quarantine-free travel than it has with its Covid-safe software to date. Enough said on that one.
Before you read the Flyfishing story below, can I just reinforce the warning in there about the potential danger of wild foraged mushrooms? Don’t eat them unless you’ve been trained to recognise the subtle difference between a tasty morsel and a deadly fungus. My Dad had a doctorate in plant physiology and he used to take us wild mushroom foraging as kids, across the old diary paddocks dotting the Dulong Hills on the Sunshine Coast hinterland. And it was all great fun, getting up really early with Dad and heading off for long walks with his big plastic bucket, which we’d all help Dad to fill before we headed home and grilled the mushrooms for breakfast.
Dad should perhaps have paid more attention to the mushrooms we dropped in the bucket.
I recall one morning at Nambour Primary School when the blackboard and teacher began swirling across the front of the front of the classroom in paisley shapes and assorted shades of orange and purple. It was a magic morning for this little guy. And then came the rushing paramedics, the ambulance ride, the old rubber hose and the stomach pump, before the entire Black family were finally whisked away to share a big ward at the old Nambour Hospital.
It took Dad a fair while to live that one down at the local Rotary Club dinners and it put me off eating mushrooms for decades.
So, back to our lovely little picture story from Sage, via the adventures of Bri Dostie, a Maine Flyfishing Guide. It’s a tale of backwoods flyfishing and foraging which was no doubt enjoyed by all participants, except the two stocked trout which ended up on the menu.
Leading a school is the best job in the world, bringing together professional staff and parents to build a community around children and young people.
But occasionally you have some of the worst days imaginable. It is difficult to be physically confronted by a student who you know has hurt one of their own parents recently or to gather a group of students to explain that one of their peers has taken their own life.
The challenges I have faced in schools have helped form who I am. The people I have met and worked with have enriched my life. In return, I have influenced the lives of thousands of children and young people (hopefully, positively) across a school leadership career of more than 20 years.
My career in school education started in 1979 with a posting to a secondary technical school in the far northern suburbs of Melbourne as an art teacher. I still have vivid recollections of my very first lesson.
More than four decades later, my career as a school principal has concluded. I worked as teacher and school leader across three states and territories and across all three sectors of school education: government, Catholic and independent schools. Each school has its own culture and context. Each has allowed, encouraged or insisted I learn and adapt.
Working in schools is intellectually, emotionally, and socially demanding. It is also incredibly rewarding to meet adults who I first knew as children or teenagers. Even the naughtiest have turned into decent people. Many have gone on to make significant contributions to their communities, in ways that I could not imagine at the time I knew them in school. In that sense, the rewards of teaching are palpable. I take no credit for the successes of these students but I have had the privilege of a small influence on their growth and development.
The needs of students have become much more complex over the last 15 years. As young people enter a volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous world, they need additional skills. The development of strong literacy and numeracy skills, and a solid knowledge base must be complemented by the development of creativity, critical thinking, collaboration and communication skills, an ethical character and the capacity to make positive contributions.
We must acknowledge the important role the adults in schools play in the development of the young. We must invest in developing the capacity of these people, to invest in our young people. The teacher in the room with your child is second only to you, their parents, in their influence on your children.
I wish I was 20 years younger and able to be more involved in these exciting challenges in schools. I am not, and thus I hand over to a new generation.
Allan Shaw is the recently retired principal of The Knox School.
Jun 22
-
2022 Federal Election Swing Map
Category:Election Profiles,MAY 21 ELECTION COMMENTSThe big winners and losers in the 2022 Election can be seen in our online interactive ADS 2022 Election Map.
The five big players in 2022 were the traditional majors: the ALP and the Coalition, but also the minor parties, like the Greens, the Teals and the Others (including One Nation and the UAP).
The influence of the minor parties in 2022 was wielded not so much through their preferences, but through the sheer size of their primary votes, as the support base for the major parties shrunk, with the ALP going backwards in some of its once-safest seats in Victoria to One Nation, the UAP and the Teals and the Liberal Party copping an absolute hiding in its wealthiest seats to Independents and in its former stronghold of Western Australia.
Teal campaigns run by the Climate 200 group wiped out the Green primary vote when they both ran in safe Liberal like Kooyong, but where there was no Teal candidate, as we saw in three Brisbane River seats won by the Greens, the Liberal primary vote losses switched directly to the Greens.
The primary vote for the Others group exceeded 20 percent after ten percent plus swings to the minor parties in normally-solid Labor seats across Victoria, NSW and Tasmania.
While the Liberal Party has a problem in its safest seats with the higher-income Teals, the ALP has a problem in its safest, lower-income seats, with right wing minor parties.
The interactive Esri map also shows an innovative cube layer for two of the key demographic drivers for the Teal vote: Female Professionals and Top Quartile income earners, so you can see how these two variables interact.
See story in The Australian Financial Review
Click to view interactive ADS 2022 Election Map